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OPEC+ pauses oil output hikes to ward off surplus
OPEC+ will raise oil production modestly but hold hikes until Q1 2026 to prevent a surplus, signalling a price-support strategy.
The OPEC+ coalition agreed to raise crude production by 137,000 bpd in December but then pause further increases through Q1 2026, citing weak seasonal demand and potential oversupply. The decision follows a near 2.9 million bpd output increase since April. Analysts estimate demand growth of 700,000–1.4 million bpd next year, which could still leave a 1.6 million bpd surplus if supply rises unchecked. The move signals a strategic shift toward supporting prices amid sluggish global growth and Russian-supply uncertainties.