Bank of America flags five major risks to the S&P 500 including 'macro fog' and private-credit stress

Bank of America has identified five key threats to the bullish U.S. equity run despite strong gains led by AI-related themes. First, valuation pressure: around 60% of warning indicators are flashing, nearing the 70% level associated with past corrections. Second, potential white-collar job losses stemming from AI could undermine consumer spending. Third is unpredictable activity involving mega-cap tech, private stocks and government holdings. Fourth, what the bank terms “macro fog” — limited visibility due to trade tensions and data gaps. Lastly, stress in private-credit markets could be the next trigger. While large banks remain well-capitalised, emerging strain in non-bank finance is raising concerns about liquidity and market stability.