Dollar strength and global manufacturing softness reshape market dynamics

The US dollar reached a three-month high as the Federal Reserve’s split messaging reduced immediate expectations for rate cuts, prompting currency and emerging market pressure. Investors are watching the Reserve Bank of Australia for cues after the Fed’s commentary. Japan’s manufacturing PMI registered the steepest contraction in 19 months, driven by weak demand in automotive and semiconductor supply chains. Meanwhile, Western oil firms are benefiting from elevated refining margins due to geopolitical actions that have tightened certain regional supplies, producing windfalls despite broader demand concerns and oversupply risks in other segments.