UBS projects India’s nominal GDP growth to slow to 8.5% in FY26 amid global headwinds

UBS expects India’s nominal GDP growth to moderate to 8.5 % in FY26 from an estimated 10 % this fiscal as global trade pressures and tight monetary conditions persist. The report suggests a potential 25-basis-point rate cut by the RBI in FY26 if inflation remains benign. UBS forecasts steady investment momentum and private consumption to support domestic demand despite external risks. The firm expects India to remain Asia’s fastest-growing major economy, backed by strong corporate earnings and government capital expenditure.