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U.S. government shutdown may shave up to 2 percentage points off Q4 growth, says analysis
The prolonged U.
As of 8 November 2025, the U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its sixth week - the longest in modern history. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that fourth-quarter GDP growth could be reduced by 1-2 percentage points due to lost output, furloughed staff and unpaid workers.
Separately, private data show roughly 700,000 federal workers remain unpaid and over 670,000 furloughed.
The economic drag is raising concerns of spill-over into the holiday shopping season and consumer confidence.