Bond-market calm defies expectations despite fiscal & liquidity risks

Even as the U.S. government shutdown drags on and fiscal deficits rise, the U.S. Treasury bond market remains oddly placid. The MOVE Index — a gauge of short-term Treasury yield volatility — has slipped to its lowest level in nearly four years, signalling investor confidence or complacency. Market participants say ample central-bank liquidity and expectations of future rate cuts could be keeping volatility muted, even though structural risks such as high public debt and liquidity-strain remain. Analysts caution that the calm may be masking underlying tensions.