Shutdown Scenario Models Signal A Temporary U.S. Growth Hit

Macro forecasters estimated that a federal government shutdown could trim fourth-quarter U.S. GDP by around 0.4 percentage points, with activity normalizing once operations resume. The modeled impact primarily reflects deferred spending, delays in data releases, and localized consumption effects near federal hubs. Markets typically discount transient disruptions; however, prolonged standoffs risk compounding effects on confidence and hiring. Strategists advised monitoring weekly labor indicators, high-frequency card data, and survey-based measures to gauge any spillovers beyond the shutdown window.