India inflation seen below 0.5% in October on GST reform and food deflation

India’s retail inflation is expected to drop to an eight-year low of around 0.5% in October 2025, aided by negative food prices and GST rate reforms. Union Bank’s report projects FY26 headline CPI averaging 2.6% and expects RBI policy to stay neutral until mid-2026. Analysts cite favorable base effects, improved crop supply, and low energy costs as drivers of price stability. Markets anticipate a gradual shift toward accommodative stance if inflation remains anchored below the target band.