Deutsche Bank Research: Fed outlook turns dovish as data weaken into year-end

Deutsche Bank’s latest Macro MATTers report says the Federal Reserve’s next two meetings will hinge on deteriorating labor data and delayed inflation releases caused by the shutdown. Economists expect one additional 25 bps rate cut in December 2025, followed by a pause as officials assess fiscal drag. The note argues that the Fed’s easing bias will persist into early 2026 unless inflation re-accelerates. DB adds that funding-market stability and Treasury issuance dynamics remain key watchpoints.