AGI Timelines: Surveys Reveal 2040–2061 Window

Multiple surveys of AI researchers show that there is roughly a 50% probability that AGI will emerge between 2040 and 2061. Entrepreneurs tend to be more optimistic, predicting earlier arrival around 2030. While narrow AI already outperforms humans in specialized tasks, a machine capable of general intelligence remains absent. Experts highlight that factors like hardware costs, algorithmic improvements, and training data will critically influence AGI’s timeline.