In its latest update, the IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2 %, citing more moderate tariffs, a weaker US dollar and strong private‐sector adaptability. However, the institution warned that a renewed trade war between the US and China could shave off up to 1.8 percentage points of growth by 2027. The report underlines that while near-term momentum is holding, structural headwinds including trade tensions and financial vulnerabilities still weigh heavily.