The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown may reduce fourth-quarter GDP by between $7 billion and $14 billion (up to 2 %) due to halted spending and stalled operations. The figure reflects direct costs but excludes ripple effects that might emerge from weakened business or consumer confidence. The CBO emphasised that while much of the output loss may be recovered later, a portion might be permanently foregone depending on the duration of the shutdown and policy responses.