Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting revealed that most officials backed further rate cuts this year, citing rising unemployment and moderating inflation. A minority dissented, preferring to hold rates steady or cut more aggressively. The document reinforced that internal debate remains over timing and magnitude of easing. The shutdown, delaying key data, heightens uncertainty in decision making.

A recent survey by the National Association for Business Economics projected 2025 U.S. GDP growth near 1.8%, higher than prior estimates, even as job gains remain tepid. Business investment and AI-related capital spending were cited as support, while tariffs were seen to subtract from growth and push up costs. Inflation is expected to ease slowly, hitting 3.0% by year-end, then falling to 2.5% in 2026. Survey participants flagged vulnerability if labor conditions deteriorate.